Mumbai
Irrespective of whether the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cuts its policy rate on
or before the April 5 policy review, banks will have to cut their lending rates
by at least 25-30 basis points (bps) in April, to catch up with the lag in
transmission.
The central bank has, so far, cut its repo rate by 125 bps and banks have
passed on between 60-70 bps of the cut. If the central bank cuts some more, as
is expected by the market, banks' lending rate cuts should be steeper, too. One
basis point is 0.01 per cent.
But, the lending rate cuts might not happen immediately in March, as banks
would ideally want to shore up their treasury profits by taking advantage of
the recent dip in bond yields, and also enjoy an improvement in spreads in the
last month of the financial year, when credit demand generally picks up.
The resultant profit will also mend their bottom line to some extent, as they
have been severely hit by RBI's asset quality review programme, which will
continue to exert pressure in the March quarter as well. "Transmission
will happen, irrespective of the rate cut quantum (by RBI)," said Soumya
Kanti Ghosh, chief economist, State Bank of India.
However, that will likely not be in March, said A Prasanna, chief economist at
ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd.
"There is pressure on bank balance sheets now. Transmission will improve
with liquidity in April," Prasanna said.
From April 1, RBI's marginal cost-based lending rate (MCLR) would kick in,
which will prod banks to use their incremental cost of funds, rather than
average cost of deposits to arrive at the lending rate. Since money market
rates move faster than deposit rates and banks tap into these money markets,
the incremental cost will add dynamism in lending rate calculations. And, 10-year
bond yields have fallen 15-20 bps since the Budget. If this trend continues
till March-end, banks would have to factor in this drop.
Finally, with RBI infusing longer-term liquidity in the system through
secondary bond market purchases, banks should have less reason to complain that
system liquidity tightness is not letting them pass on rate cuts. Under the new
liquidity framework, RBI ensures call money rates are anchored at around the
repo rate, no matter how much liquidity infusion is needed. However, bankers
have complained that the liquidity infused is short-term, and more permanent
liquidity needs to be infused through secondary market bond purchase. The
central bank does so through its open market operations, or OMO. Including a
scheduled Rs 15,000-crore OMO purchase on Thursday, RBI's liquidity infusion is
close to Rs 50,000 crore in recent months.
The OMOs, and with government spending picking up, have ensured that from an
acute shortage of Rs 1.6 lakh crore at the end of January, banking system liquidity
has improved to less than Rs 1 lakh crore now.
But there would be stress on the liquidity front again, starting March 15, when
advanced tax outflow starts, pointed out Gaurav Kapur, India economist at Royal
Bank of Scotland.
The tight liquidity condition would be needed to be evened out first before
banks can move with rate cuts and that would be by the next financial year,
Kapur said.
However, whether the rate cut would be of any meaning to revive growth is a
different question altogether, articulated IDFC Bank's Chief Economist Indranil
Pan.
"With MCLR pricing the incremental cost, pass-through of the cumulative
125-basis point rate cut is expected to be at 25-30 bps. So, even after a
transmission of 85-90 bps if credit growth doesn't take place, one needs to ask
if the problem lies with the RBI rate cuts and transmission mechanism or the
credit channel itself," Pan said.