The bond market’s ‘Thank You’ note to the government

 Bond yields fall to the lowest in 32 months

The 10-year yield opened at 7.488% and touched a low of 7.477%, a level last seen on 11 July 2013. Photo: Pradeep Gaur/Mint

Mumbai: If the bond markets can be unforgiving when faced with poor fiscal and economic policies, it can be equally gracious to a fiscally and economically prudent approach.

The sharp fall in bond yields since the budget and the change in mood in the bond markets vindicates this. Traders, who were sulking in fear of a slippage in fiscal deficit targets, are now feeling some spring cheer in the hope that the government decision to remain on the path of fiscal consolidation will be backed by at least a 25 basis point (bps) cut in rates by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Some are even expecting a 50 bps cut. One basis point is 0.01%.

The government’s decision to cut small savings rate on Friday—a decision that many thought was too politically difficult to take—has only added to the excitement in the air. The government also announced its borrowing plan on Friday, which held no surprises.

In response, this morning the benchmark 10-year bond yield has fallen to a 32-month low.

The 10-year yield opened at 7.488% and touched a low of 7.477%, a level last seen on 11 July 2013. At 9.30am, the 10-year yield was trading at 7.478%, down from its Friday’s close of 7.52%. Since 26 February, the Friday before the budget, the bond yield has fallen by over 30 bps.

“Post-budget cheer in bonds is likely to get further short-term boost as the government recalibrated small savings rates, essentially passing the baton to the RBI. We expect benchmark 10-year yield to remain around 7.4-7.6% in 1HFY17 as the market appears to have already priced in at least 25 bps rate cut in the coming months. We pencil in 50 bps rate cuts in CY2016,” wrote Madhavi Arora, economist at Kotak Economic Research, in a note on Saturday.

Indranil Pan, chief economist at IDFC Bank, agreed with that view.

“The government’s gross and net borrowings in H1FY17 are projected at Rs.3.55 trillion and Rs.2.48 trillion, respectively. The net borrowing is 14% higher than H1FY16 due to higher redemptions in H1FY16 at Rs.1.3 trillion compared with Rs.1.07 trillion in H1FY17. Net borrowing in April and May is Rs.164 billion and Rs.540 billion, respectively, compared with Rs.480 billion and Rs.771 billion during the same months in the previous year. In addition to this, with the government reducing small savings rates across the spectrum, the interest rates offered by commercial banks should also head lower. Hence, we now see 10-year benchmark yield coming off to 7.25-7.50% in FY17, compared with our earlier range of 7.35-7.55%,” said Pan in his note on Saturday.

Given the pace of the rally in bond markets, a note of caution is warranted.

A section of the market seems to be expecting either a 50 bps cut from the RBI in its April policy or at least a far more dovish tone than the RBI has so far maintained.

A reminder to this section of the market that while the RBI may take comfort from the fiscal discipline shown by the government, inflation indicators will remain prime to its interest rate policy. In this context, it is important to remember that while inflation in the past year has undershot the RBI’s targets, the central bank will now be setting policies keeping its goal of bringing inflation down to 5% by March 2017.

Given that the benefits from lower global commodity prices are already in the inflation data and that the system has the impact of the pay commission to deal with, the RBI may continue to tread with its customary caution.

Sun Capital

Top 10 tips to boost investing results in 2016.

1. Keep an eye on the Fed (and other central banks)

Central banks may not be in the driver's seat when it comes to world markets right now, but they definitely have a hand on the wheel. A few words from Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen or European Central Bank President Mario Draghi can send stock markets across the world charging upward or downward hundreds of points.

A big part of the investing story in 2016 will undoubtedly hinge on how well Yellen manages the U.S.'s transition to normal, non-zero interest rates. If she raises rates too quickly, it could push the still-rickety U.S. economy back toward recession. If she raises rates too slowly, cheap credit could fuel a bubble in asset prices.


In general, higher interest rates mean slower economic growth and thinner profits for U.S. firms, so you'd think that the longer Yellen holds off in raising rates, the better for U.S. stocks.

But Yellen's reluctance to raise rates hasn't always been interpreted as a positive signal by the markets, perhaps because it's seen as evidence that the U.S. is on shakier economic ground than we'd like to think.

In short, the Fed is a wild card this year.
One stable investment is a certificate of deposit. Find the best CD rates.

2. Get ready for some volatility in 2016

A number of studies have shown that periods of intense volatility tend to cluster together. The 2nd half of 2015 featured several months of intense volatility, so that would seem to augur for more of the same in at least the 1st half of 2016.

On top of that, changes to the federal funds rate have tended to be accompanied by volatility in the markets over the past few decades, so it's shaping up to be a bumpy ride in 2016.

3. Keep enough cash on hand to avoid liquidating assets

In low-volatility times when asset prices are on an upward trend, it's tempting to be invested in the market as much as possible. Why hold cash that's earning next to nothing, the thinking goes, when you can have your money working hard in the markets for you? In an environment where the market is continually setting record highs, you can always liquidate investments at full value to fund whatever cash needs you may have.

With volatility likely to be strong in 2016, it might make sense for those who depend on their portfolio to pay some or all of their living expenses to set aside a larger cash cushion ahead of time. That's so they don't have to sell assets at temporarily depressed prices in order to meet routine or unexpected expenses.

4. Be aware of assets outside of your brokerage account

When you're planning out your portfolio, it's easy to lose track of non-financial assets because they don't appear on brokerage statements. That can lead to accidentally concentrating too much of your overall wealth in some sectors and not enough in others.

For instance, say you decide you want exposure to the residential housing market, and you go out and put a sizable chunk of your stock portfolio into the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB). If you're also a homeowner and have a big percentage of your net worth tied up in your home equity, as many homeowners do, your total exposure to residential real estate is your equity, plus whatever percentage of your overall assets are in XHB. At that point, you may be overexposed if the housing market goes sideways again.

The same applies to your human capital -- a complicated-sounding term that means the present value of all your future paychecks put together. For example, if you're a petroleum engineer, your paychecks, and consequently, the value of your human capital, are very much tied up in the fate of the oil industry.

If things go really bad, you could end up seeing your wages stagnate or, worse, you could become unemployed. In that case, it may not be a great idea to have a huge allocation to oil companies in your portfolio on top of that.

A good financial planner would take into account all of your assets, not just the financial ones, and so should you.

5. Make a plan and stick with it

When you see the value of your portfolio take a big hit, it's understandable to want to log on to your investment accounts immediately and sell, sell, sell.

But how do you avoid falling into the buy-high, sell-low trap? Mostly by having -- and sticking with -- a comprehensive investment plan. That plan should have 2 essential parts:

1. An investment policy statement, or IPS, that takes into account your particular time horizon, risk tolerance and goals.
2. A strategic asset allocation designed to help you reach the goals within the constraints outlined in your IPS.

Of course, your investment plan shouldn't be carved in stone. It's important to update it regularly, particularly if something fundamental changes with your investing needs or market conditions.
Stick to your plan through day-to-day fluctuations rather than going on a selling frenzy every time you get uncomfortable. Think of it as a guardrail to keep you between the ditches when market turns get twisty.

6. Dollar-cost averaging can be your friend

Research seems to suggest that if you have money on the sidelines, you're more likely to get better returns by putting it into the market all at once rather than making smaller securities purchases at regular intervals -- a practice known as dollar-cost averaging.

But dollar-cost averaging can have benefits from a behavioral finance perspective -- that is, it helps investors not to freak out and sell everything when the blue chips are down.

For example, say you get a $2,000 bonus at work and want to put some money into a tax-advantaged 529 college plan account for your kids' education.

If you put the entire lump sum in right before the market takes a big hit and your brand-new investments lose 10% of their value in a day, you're going to be tempted to sell it all and move into unproductive cash investments.

On the other hand, if you put $200 per month in for 10 months, day-to-day price fluctuations may not have the same emotional impact.

Particularly in a year that's looking to be fairly volatile, that type of strategy might be useful, especially for beginning investors.

7. Watch for bargains

When you're investing for the short term, big drops in asset values are bad news. The prices may never recover before you have to cash out, locking in your losses.

But when you're investing for the long term, bear markets and large-scale drops in asset prices should be looked at the same way you look at a buy-one, get-one-free sale at the supermarket -- as an opportunity to stock up (no pun intended) when prices are low.

There are a few key sectors that look likely to be depressed in 2016, most notably energy, materials and utilities. As long as it fits in with your overall investment plan, taking the opportunity to pick up some of the historically highest-performing companies in those sectors may help boost your returns over the long term.

8. Be skeptical of portfolio-based lending

Portfolio-based lending, or using securities in your portfolio as collateral for loans, has become a big business for banks' wealth-management arms. It's often sold this way: Why liquidate investments that are doing well when you can take out a low-interest-rate loan and pocket the difference?
But there's 1 big reason that portfolio-based loans are usually a bad idea: If the securities decline substantially in value, you could be on the receiving end of a margin call. If that happens, you may either have to put up more collateral or face having the loan come due immediately.

In an environment where security prices could be fluctuating more than in the recent past, that could end badly for investors. If you need cash to make a purchase, a better move might simply be liquidating part of your portfolio and using the proceeds from the sale instead.

9. Take advantage of tax management opportunities

One positive effect of rocky markets is that they allow for some substantial capital gains management on taxable investments.

Basically, any investment you own in a taxable account that has gone up in value a lot is a tax bomb waiting to explode and stick you with a bill for up to 20% of the gain, depending on your income.
The 1 thing that can defuse these tax bombs is using losses on investments that didn't work out to offset the gains.

Here's the basic trick: You see that stocks in a particular category are falling across the board because of some broad economic trend. You happen to own a stock in this category that's been a loser compared with its peers for some reason -- its products aren't as good, its management is clueless, whatever. You don't want to own it anymore, but you believe the sector it's in will recover at some point before the end of your time horizon.

But wait! There's another stock in that same category that's consistently beaten your bad stock and looks well-positioned for a comeback. You can sell the bad company's stock, use the proceeds to buy the good stock, and boom, you have a tax loss to offset gains elsewhere in your portfolio, and you haven't violated the wash-sale rule.
Times of elevated volatility, like 2016 is looking to be, are a perfect time to pull off just such a maneuver. So, if you have chronically underperforming investments that you've wanted to unload for a while and have some long-term capital gains issues that need to be addressed, keep tax-loss harvesting in mind.

10. Be aware of the difference between cyclical vs. secular trends

A cyclical trend is just what it sounds like: a market trend that will reverse itself within a few months or years and go back the other way, like how broad stock market indexes fall in the lead-up to a recession and then begin rising as an economy comes out of recession.

A secular trend is different. It's a longer-term trend in an industry or market brought on by some fundamental change, like the fall of Polaroid as digital cameras gained in popularity or the decline of newspaper stocks as Web-based news consumption became the norm.

Sometimes in the moment, it can be difficult to tell the difference between the 2. For instance, are current low oil prices a cyclical trend that will soon reverse, leading to prices rising to record levels in the future? Or are oil companies looking at more or less permanently slow growth, thanks to gains in renewable technologies and increasing environmental regulation designed to slow global warming?
Will financial stocks recover as they adjust to (and lobby against) new regulations designed to keep them from blowing up the global economy again? Or, are their low stock prices a symptom of disruption by prepaid debit card providers, robo-advisers and other fairly recent "fintech" competitors?

As the pace of technological change accelerates in 2016 and beyond, these types of questions will become even more pressing for investors, increasingly determining which investors win and which ones lose.

Sun Capital

Kotak Mahindra, Canada pension board launch $525 mn stressed asset fund

The fund has a flexible investment mandate with aim to restructure, recover and turn around companies in distress.

Kotak Mahindra Group has tied up with Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) to launch a $525 million fund to invest in the stressed asset market in India. The Canadian pension fund manager will have the option to invest up to $450 million in this partnership, Kotak Mahindra Group said in a statement on Monday.

“This investment will address the growing opportunity arising from the current stress in the Indian banking and corporate sectors,” the statement said.

The fund has a flexible investment mandate—providing financing solutions to companies—in addition to investing in stressed asset sales by banks with the aim to restructure, recover and turn around companies in distress, it added.

“Through this agreement, CPPIB will selectively invest in assets that we believe will deliver value in line with our long-term investment mandate,” said Adam Vigna, managing director, principal credit investments, CPPIB.

On 22 January, Mint had reported that Kotak Mahindra Group and CPPIB are in the process of launching a $500-600 million stressed asset fund in India, before the end of the financial year.

The fund will work closely with Kotak Mahindra Group and its affiliate, Phoenix Asset Reconstruction Company (ARC) Pvt. Ltd, to locate opportunities in the stressed asset market in India. Kotak Mahindra Bank currently owns 49% stake in Phoenix ARC.

Kotak Mahindra and the CPPIB have been in discussions since 2015, as stressed assets piled up at domestic banks in the aftermath of an economic downturn that made it difficult for many borrowers to repay debt.

In January, Ajay Piramal-led Piramal Group said it will launch a $1 billion stressed assets fund in association with Nirmal Gangwal, founder of Brescon Corporate Advisors Ltd, a corporate turnaround firm. The fund will be looking at investing in stressed firms and possibly take over management where needed.

The stressed asset market is looking attractive to domestic and foreign investors due to a pile-up of bad loans in the Indian banking system, which is working on a March 2017 deadline to clean up its books.

Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) of 39 listed banks surged to Rs.4.38 trillion in the quarter ended 31 December 2015, from Rs.3.4 trillion at the end of the September quarter, according to data collated by corporate database provider Capitaline.

In a statement last week, ratings agency Crisil Ratings had said that it expects stressed assets (a sum of gross NPAs and other troubled assets) in the Indian banking system to rise to over Rs.7 trillion (or 11.3% of total loans) by March 2017, from about Rs.4 trillion (7.2% of total loans) as on March 2015

Sun Capital

RBI orders probe into alleged frauds in loans to farmers

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has ordered a probe into allegations of irregularities committed by public, private and foreign banks to claim achievements of targets in lending to farmers and the agro-sector, an official said on Friday.

The probe has been ordered following a detailed memorandum listing the alleged frauds, submitted by the Vasantrao Naik Sheti Swavalamban Mission (VNSSM), a state-run body, in December.

The finance ministry had forwarded the VNSSM complaint to the Chief Vigilance Officer of RBI after which the probe was initiated, said VNSSM President Kishore Tiwari, who enjoys the rank of a minister of state.

"It is shocking that due to failure of banks to implement the RBI Targeted schemes, farmers and agro-sectors are suffering and the country has witnessed lakhs of farmland suicides, including over 25,000 in Maharashtra alone, in the past decade," Tiwari said.

He said that as per RBI's guidelines, all banks in the country were given a specific target of lending 18 percent of Adjusted Net Bank Credit or credit equivalent of Off-Balance Sheet Exposure, whichever is higher, to the agro-sector and farmers.

However, a study by the VNSSM revealed the massive alleged irregularities and frauds perpetrated by the concerned banks merely to tom-tom achievements of targets and sub-targets, thereby defeating the purpose of benefiting the farmers and agro-priorities sectors, Tiwari said.

The modus operandi reportedly involved forming fictitious farmers' Joint Liabilities Groups with fraudulent documents in the name of the farmers. The disbursements of crores of rupees of agro-credits never reached them though the targets were shown as 'achieved'.

Similarly, paper-borne schemes of agro-finance against collaterals of agricultural lands of the farmers at subsidized interest rates were shown, but immediately the entire amounts were turned and put in fixed deposits at higher interest rates, Tiwari said.

"Hence, though it was shown as disbursed on paper, in reality the money never reached the farmers and while the banks 'enriched' themselves, the poor farmers resorted to suicide. This is virtually a white collar crime," he said.

Another paper-borne scheme pertains to Agro Warehousing Receipt finance through Urban Cooperative Socieites by way of Cash Credit against agro-produce, said to be stored in warehouses against which the societies claimed finance for farmers at low interest rates. Again the entire amount was converted into FDs and did not reach the famers, according to Tiwari.

The VNSSM listed other methods to defeat the agro-sector and farmers with big Cash Credits made available at low interest rates to corporate houses for their farming businesses to show achievement of targets.

Sun Capital

India can deliver two-third of world growth: IMF

Appreciating continuing reform process in the country, IMF chief Christine Lagarde today said “India’s star shines bright” amid global economic challenges and can deliver nearly two-thirds of the worldwide growth over the next four years despite a slowing momentum.

The world’s fastest-growing large economy, she said, is on the verge of having the largest and youngest-ever workforce and, in a decade, set to become the world’s most populous country.

“So, India stands at a crucial moment in its history — with an unprecedented opportunity for transformation. Important reforms are already under way,” the IMF Managing Director said at a conference on ‘Advancing Asia: Investing for the Future’ here.

“Think, for example, of Make-in-India and Digital India. And with the promise of even more reforms to come, India’s star shines bright.”

The conference is being organised by the Ministry of Finance and IMF, which was attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Recalling that India and IMF go back a long way together — India was a founding member of the Fund more than 70 years ago — Lagarde said Asia is the world’s most dynamic region and today accounts for 40 per cent of the global economy.

“Over the next four years, even with a slightly declining momentum, it stands to deliver nearly two-thirds of global growth,” she added.

Lagarde, who got reelected for the second term as chief of the Washington-headquartered International Monetary Fund (IMF), pointed to the global economy facing many challenges.

These challenges, she said, include volatile markets and capital flows, economic transitions and financial tightening in many countries, the large drop in commodity prices, including oil and escalated geo-political tension.

Sun Capital

RBI proposes cutting of merchant discount rate

Mumbai The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has proposed to rationalise the merchant discount rate (MDR), or the fee a merchant has to pay a bank to access its payment infrastructure.

While the central bank did not provide any solution, it has asked public opinion in a concept paper on card acceptance infrastructure.

In the concept paper, RBI noted that MDR "often acts as a disincentive," as the cap prescribed by the regulators were treated as a floor and the benefit of lower MDR "not really accruing to smaller merchants."

Larger merchants, with economies of scale, can absorb MDR relatively easily.

In September 2012, RBI capped MDR for debit card transaction at 0.75 per cent for transaction values up to Rs 2,000 and at 1 per cent for transaction values above Rs 2,000.

The concept paper also raised questions whether MDR for credit cards should also be rationalised as the cap prescribed was only for debit cards but can be extended to credit cards as well. However, if MDR was lowered, the merchant acquisition would be unattractive for banks, thereby defeating the purpose of promoting card payment.

The concept paper proposed a few options that can be explored to make MDR viable and at the same time cheap.

The proposals included ad-valorem MDR across all merchant categories and locations, differentiated MDR across various tiers of cities and merchant sizes, and also fixing the MDR at a flat fee rate beyond certain value.

Banks are also going slow on acquiring merchants, the paper noted.

Between October 2013 and October 2015, ATMs increased by around 43 per cent while POS machines increased by around 28 per cent. As of end-December 2015, the number of ATMs has increased to 193,580 while POS machines had increased to 1,245,447 in the country.

"The issuance gap in POS terminals is glaringly high. For more than 25 million retail outlets currently, we have about 1.2 million POS terminals in India. Going forward, the POS gap will only increase leading to major acceptance problems," said Kumar Karpe, CEO of TechProcess Payment Services Ltd.


"India needs to leapfrog the gap by leveraging the existing infrastructure of more than 200 million smart phones and work towards a virtual mPOS solution that converts a merchant's smartphone into a virtual point-of-sale device."

Sun Capital

RBI Cancels Registration Certificate of BNP Paribas, 3 Others

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday said it has cancelled registration certificates of four non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) including BNP Paribas India Holding Pvt Ltd.

The three other firms are Mumbai-based Financial Services Private Limited Bhageriya Financial, Capital Services Limited of Hyderabad and Kenny Commercial & Investment Pvt Ltd belonging to Jammu.

Following the cancellation of registration certificates, these companies cannot transact the business of a non-banking financial institution, the RBI said.

Commenting on the RBI's move, BNP Paribas said, "In view of BNP Paribas India Holding Company (BNPP IHC) being classified as an exempt Core Investment Company which will not access public funds, RBI has, on BNPP IHC's own request, cancelled its registration as an NBFC."

Over last few years, the RBI has carved out some specialized NBFCs like Core Investment Companies (CICs), NBFC-Infrastructure Finance Companies (IFCs), Infrastructure Debt Fund- NBFCs, NBFC-MFIs and NBFC-Factors.

Sun Capital

Banks disburse over Rs 1.15 lakh crore under PM Mudra Yojana

Banks have so far disbursed over Rs 1.15 lakh crore under Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (PMMY), financial services secretary Anjuly Chib Duggal said on Tuesday.

Micro Units Development and Refinance Agency Ltd (Mudra) focuses on 5.75 crore self-employed who use funds totalling Rs 11 lakh crore and provide jobs to 12 crore people.

Under PMMY, loans between Rs 50,000 and Rs 10 lakh are provided to small entrepreneurs.

"We have been working with Mudra. It has been a runaway success ... we are looking at Rs 1.15 lakh crore plus right now," she said at an event organized by MFIN here.

The scheme was launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in April last year.

Three products available under the PMMY are Shishu, Kishor and Tarun, to signify the stage of growth and funding needs of the beneficiary micro unit or entrepreneur.

Shishu covers loans of up to Rs 50,000 while Kishor covers those above Rs 50,000 and up to Rs 5 lakh. Tarun category provides loans of above Rs 5 lakh and up to Rs 10 lakh.

With regard to Banks Board Bureau, Duggal said, she would be meeting newly appointed chairman Vinod Rai this week to discuss operationalisation of this specialised body.

Last month Rai, a former CAG, was appointed head of Banks Board Bureau by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The bureau will give recommendations on appointment of directors in public sector banks and advise on ways to raise funds and mergers and acquisitions to the lenders.

There are 22 state-owned banks in India including SBI, IDBI Bank and Bhartiya Mahila Bank.

Besides, she said that there would be meeting of heads of the bank on March 22 to discuss about the recently launched crop insurance scheme by Prime Minister.

The crop insurance scheme scheme has already been approved by the Cabinet that would replace the existing ones to ensure that farmers pay less premium and get early claims for the full sum insured.

Investment Banking

Banks with strong networks will find takers

Mumbai The government, which recently stepped up focus on consolidating weaker public sector banks (PSBs), plans to reduce the number from 27 now to six or seven larger banks.While market capitalisation is a reflection of how the Street (investors, analysts, etc) views the bank's core fundamentals, the current state as well as the future prospects, a detailed look at the nine months' data of these banks provides some insight on their financial and business condition.In terms of asset quality, for instance, Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) and UCO Bank are the worst placed as they had the highest gross non-performing assets (NPA) at 12.6 per cent and 11 per cent, respectively, as on December 31, 2015.Dena Bank was the third on this list with gross NPA ratio of 9.9 per cent. 

However, if one adds the restructured assets, it would reflect the real asset quality picture of a bank. While the latest figures of total stressed assets for many banks are not available, the situation is not alarming, say analysts.Many PSBs also have low levels of capital to fund growth as well as any fresh losses that they may witness on account of bad loans. For example, while Dena Bank reported a net loss for the nine months ending December 31, 2015; its Tier-1 capital of 7.1 per cent is the lowest amongst its peers. United Bank's Tier-1 capital ratio, too, stood at 7.1 per cent in this period. Again, not all banks have declared their Tier-1 capital ratios as at the end of the December 2015 quarter.Notably, while PSBs consolidation will be largely driven by regulations, larger banks would not want to buy banks having low capital adequacy as well as poor asset quality, unless they prove to be of strategic importance. A key factor that will aid consolidation will be a bank's branch network. Historically, banks having larger presence in one region have bought smaller banks having stronger presence in another region. This ensures there is minimal overlap and the businesses are complementary in nature. The key hurdle and integration challenge, though, will be the employee unions in some of the PSBs that might resist such mergers and acquisitions. Nevertheless, with the advent of digital banking, the attraction of a branch network might not be enough.Analysts, however, believe most smaller and relatively weaker PSU banks could be potential takeover targets.Vaibhav Agrawal of Angel Broking says, "United Bank, IOB, OBC, Dena Bank, Vijaya Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, Andhra Bank, Indian Bank, Corporation Bank, among others, could be key takeover targets. The prime criteria will be complementary network, capital adequacy, asset quality, unions and actual integration of this merger."

Sun Capital

DRT freezes Vijay Mallya’s sweetheart deal with Diageo

Debt recovery tribunal says payment to Vijay Mallya can’t be made until case filed by SBI, other lenders is disposed of

Bengaluru: UB Group chairman Vijay Mallya received a setback on Monday when the debt recovery tribunal (DRT) in Bengaluru blocked him from getting his hands on a $75 million payout by Diageo Plc., responding to an application by creditors led by State Bank of India (SBI).

The tribunal said Mallya cannot access the money until a case filed against him by SBI is settled. The order came in response to one of the four so-called interlocutory applications filed last week by SBI, which also demanded the arrest of Mallya, the impounding of his passport and a full disclosure of his assets and liabilities.

SBI has also moved the Karnakata high court for similar directives.

Banks owed money by Mallya’s grounded Kingfisher Airlines have the “first right” to the Diageo money, according to SBI.

The tribunal on Monday also directed London-based Diageo and its Indian unit United Spirits Ltd (USL) not to disburse any money to Mallya before the case is disposed of. It set the next hearing for 28 March.

Sun Capital

Sebi may peg M&A ‘control’ cap at 25%

Regulator’s move is aimed at removing ambiguities that companies confront during takeovers

Mumbai: The market regulator is set to clarify what the term ‘control’ means in the context of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) by pegging the shareholding threshold of an acquirer at 25%, two persons familiar with the development said.

The move is aimed at removing ambiguities that companies currently confront during takeovers, one of the two persons said, requesting anonymity.

Currently, the definition of ‘control’ under the Substantial Acquisition of Shares and Takeovers (SAST) Regulations, 2011—popularly known as the Takeover Code—doesn’t specify a threshold for shareholding.

“The numerical threshold for determining control is a globally accepted norm and should be the prescribed criteria along with the other factors which may signify control,” said Tejesh Chitlangi, a partner at law firm IC Legal.

The current takeover code states that an acquirer is in ‘control’ only if the board of the company that’s being acquired gives the former the right to appoint a majority of the directors, and have the final say on management and policy decisions.

The control of management or policy decisions is through shareholding or management rights or shareholders’ agreement or voting agreements.

“The Securities and Exchange Board of India board will clear a discussion paper on Saturday, which proposes to peg the numeric threshold of voting rights (shareholding) at 25% and giving protective rights to the acquirer,” said the second person, who also declined to be named.

A Sebi spokesperson did not respond to an e-mail seeking comment.

According to the discussion paper, there could be a framework for protective rights with an exhaustive list of rights that do not lead to acquisition of control.

These protective rights would be granted to the acquirer if they are cleared by 51% of the minority public shareholders.

“While it will be important to have a list which considers the commercial realities of merger and acquisition transactions, it may be a practically onerous task to have an exhaustive list that captures all the exempted protective rights and Sebi may need to grant an exemption on case-to-case basis,” the second person said.

According to Lalit Kumar, partner at J. Sagar Associates, there is currently no clarity on whether or not protective (veto) rights to investors will lead to control.

“This issue came up in the matter of Subhkam Ventures where Sebi held that protective rights lead to control. However, in appeal to the Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT), SAT held that protective rights only lead to negative control and not positive control,” Kumar said.

“The matter went in appeal to the Supreme Court, which did not pass any order on this issue but said that SAT’s order will not act as a precedent. Therefore, presently, there is no decided case on this issue although the general view is that protective rights do not lead to control,” he explained.

Kumar’s reference is to private equity investor Subhkam’s 17.9% stake in MSK Projects. In 2007, when it bought the stake, Subhkam sought and received several so-called negative rights (such as the power of veto on key decisions). In 2008, Sebi ruled that this constituted control. On appeal, SAT ruled in favour of Subhkam. Sebi appealed the case in the Supreme Court which dismissed the case. However, because it said SAT’s order would not be a precedent, private equity investors are still not sure as to whether negative rights such as the one Subhkam had constitute control (such rights are common in agreements between promoters and private equity firms).

Some in the legal fraternity say the definition of control cannot be set in stone.

“The question of control is a nuanced one primarily of fact and secondly of law… Anything set in stone on defining control would lead to false positives and negatives. Sebi should adopt a more nuanced approach and go by court rulings as precedents,” said Sandeep Parekh, founder, Finsec Law Advisors.

Sebi first started reviewing the definition of control in 2014. Finalizing a proposed framework took longer than expected, nearly 20 months, in wake of the number of suggestions.

Sebi decided to re-examine the definition of control following the 2013 acquisition of a 24% stake in Jet Airways (India) Ltd by Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways PJSC for Rs.2,058 crore.

In May 2014, Sebi ruled that the deal did not attract the provisions of the Takeover Code, as it found a lack of substantial controlling powers with Etihad after the transaction.

Private Equity

Banks will have to lower lending rates in April

Mumbai Irrespective of whether the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cuts its policy rate on or before the April 5 policy review, banks will have to cut their lending rates by at least 25-30 basis points (bps) in April, to catch up with the lag in transmission.

The central bank has, so far, cut its repo rate by 125 bps and banks have passed on between 60-70 bps of the cut. If the central bank cuts some more, as is expected by the market, banks' lending rate cuts should be steeper, too. One basis point is 0.01 per cent.

But, the lending rate cuts might not happen immediately in March, as banks would ideally want to shore up their treasury profits by taking advantage of the recent dip in bond yields, and also enjoy an improvement in spreads in the last month of the financial year, when credit demand generally picks up.

The resultant profit will also mend their bottom line to some extent, as they have been severely hit by RBI's asset quality review programme, which will continue to exert pressure in the March quarter as well. "Transmission will happen, irrespective of the rate cut quantum (by RBI)," said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economist, State Bank of India.

However, that will likely not be in March, said A Prasanna, chief economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd.

"There is pressure on bank balance sheets now. Transmission will improve with liquidity in April," Prasanna said.

From April 1, RBI's marginal cost-based lending rate (MCLR) would kick in, which will prod banks to use their incremental cost of funds, rather than average cost of deposits to arrive at the lending rate. Since money market rates move faster than deposit rates and banks tap into these money markets, the incremental cost will add dynamism in lending rate calculations. And, 10-year bond yields have fallen 15-20 bps since the Budget. If this trend continues till March-end, banks would have to factor in this drop.

Finally, with RBI infusing longer-term liquidity in the system through secondary bond market purchases, banks should have less reason to complain that system liquidity tightness is not letting them pass on rate cuts. Under the new liquidity framework, RBI ensures call money rates are anchored at around the repo rate, no matter how much liquidity infusion is needed. However, bankers have complained that the liquidity infused is short-term, and more permanent liquidity needs to be infused through secondary market bond purchase. The central bank does so through its open market operations, or OMO. Including a scheduled Rs 15,000-crore OMO purchase on Thursday, RBI's liquidity infusion is close to Rs 50,000 crore in recent months.

The OMOs, and with government spending picking up, have ensured that from an acute shortage of Rs 1.6 lakh crore at the end of January, banking system liquidity has improved to less than Rs 1 lakh crore now.

But there would be stress on the liquidity front again, starting March 15, when advanced tax outflow starts, pointed out Gaurav Kapur, India economist at Royal Bank of Scotland.

The tight liquidity condition would be needed to be evened out first before banks can move with rate cuts and that would be by the next financial year, Kapur said.

However, whether the rate cut would be of any meaning to revive growth is a different question altogether, articulated IDFC Bank's Chief Economist Indranil Pan.

"With MCLR pricing the incremental cost, pass-through of the cumulative 125-basis point rate cut is expected to be at 25-30 bps. So, even after a transmission of 85-90 bps if credit growth doesn't take place, one needs to ask if the problem lies with the RBI rate cuts and transmission mechanism or the credit channel itself," Pan said.

Investment Banking 

Six or more anchor banks likely to lead consolidation

The government will identify six to ten public sector banks which will drive the consolidation process among the state-owned banks, according to bankers.

Called the anchor banks, they will be identified by October 31, 2016, the bankers told The Hindu.

Large lenders like State Bank of India (SBI), Bank of Baroda (BoB), Punjab National Bank (PNB) and Canara Bank could become the anchor banks, they said.The government will set up an expert panel for the consolidation process. The Bank Board Bureau headed by former Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) Vinod Rai, which was recently formed to select chief executives and board members of public sector banks, will also help in the consolidation process.

The idea of bank consolidation was discussed at length during the ‘Gyan Sangam’ bankers’ retreat at Gurgaon last week.

Top finance ministry officials, bankers and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) officials were present during the discussions.

Merger between the banks will be based on geographical and technological synergies, human resources and business profile, among others.

Consolidation among public sector banks has been under discussionfor about a decade now.The previous United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government also wanted consolidation among public sector banks but had maintained that such a proposal should come from bank boards.

However, no bank went ahead with such a proposal, formally. There are 22 public sector banks in the country apart from five associate banks of State Bank of India. The present National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government has looked at the consolidation process differently and initiated it, bankers said.

Interestingly, during last year’s Gyan Sangam in Pune, bankers had opposed the idea of consolidation among public sector banks on the ground that the financial health of most of the banks had deteriorated. Hence, no bank was ready to absorb even a weaker institution.The mood at in this year’sGyan Sangam was different, bankers said. “The tone was set from the beginning. It was not a question of whether to consolidate or not, rather how to consolidate,” said a banker who attended the retreat.

“We were given the choice of either merging with other bank or to perform without the support of capital infusion from government,” said another banker. He said it will be difficult for public sector banks to survive without government capital.

The financial performance of public sector banks reflected a sharp deterioration after the RBI conducted an Asset Quality Review (AQR). During the review, the central bank’s inspectors found that many accounts, which ideally should have been treated as non-performing, were not classified so by the banks. The RBI then directed the banks to classify those accounts as non-performing and provide accordingly during the October-December and January-March quarters. As a result, as many as 11 public sector banks including Bank of Baroda, IDBI Bank, Bank of India and Indian Overseas Bank reported losses last quarter. The current quarter will be equally challenging for many banks.

“Things have changed since the AQR,” another banker pointed out. “There are many banks which will find it difficult to survive without capital infusion from government. If a bank remains weak, then it will lose business. In such a situation, merging with a relatively stronger bank seems to be the only option.”

Sun Capital

India says will ensure that banks are well-capitalised

India has "good control" over stressed loans at state-owned banks and will ensure lenders are well-capitalised, junior finance minister Jayant Sinha said on Friday.

Speaking as senior officials from the banks, the Reserve Bank of India and the finance ministry held an annual meeting, Sinha said the government would allocate capital based on the banks' capital-adequacy ratios, performance and credit growth.

"We will provide more as necessary to ensure that our banks are well-capitalised," he told reporters.

"As far as the set of stressed assets is concerned, as far as the NPA (non-performing assets) situation is concerned, that we think we now have very good control over and of course (we are) working very closely with the RBI."

Some critics accused the government of skimping on a bailout for the ailing state banks after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley did not announce additional funding in his Feb. 29 budget.

He stuck to plans to provide state banks with 250 billion rupees ($3.7 billion) of new capital in the next financial year towards a sector-wide bailout that the government estimates will cost $26 billion over four years.

Stressed loans -- those that have already turned bad and those seen at risk of doing so -- amount to 8 trillion Indian rupees ($119 billion), or 11.25 percent of total loans, Sinha said on Friday.

A recent surge in bad loans at state-run lenders after their regulator ordered a clean-up has led rating agencies to suggest banks will need more capital support from the government to cover losses and meet Basel III global banking rules.

More than two-dozen state-run lenders account for over two-thirds of India's banking assets and some 85 percent of troubled loans in the financial sector.

($1 = 67.0630 rupees)

Sun Capital