Mumbai
Irrespective of whether the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cuts its policy rate on
or before the April 5 policy review, banks will have to cut their lending rates
by at least 25-30 basis points (bps) in April, to catch up with the lag in
transmission.
The central bank has, so far, cut its repo rate by 125 bps and banks have passed on between 60-70 bps of the cut. If the central bank cuts some more, as is expected by the market, banks' lending rate cuts should be steeper, too. One basis point is 0.01 per cent.
But, the lending rate cuts might not happen immediately in March, as banks would ideally want to shore up their treasury profits by taking advantage of the recent dip in bond yields, and also enjoy an improvement in spreads in the last month of the financial year, when credit demand generally picks up.
The resultant profit will also mend their bottom line to some extent, as they have been severely hit by RBI's asset quality review programme, which will continue to exert pressure in the March quarter as well. "Transmission will happen, irrespective of the rate cut quantum (by RBI)," said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economist, State Bank of India.
However, that will likely not be in March, said A Prasanna, chief economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd.
"There is pressure on bank balance sheets now. Transmission will improve with liquidity in April," Prasanna said.
From April 1, RBI's marginal cost-based lending rate (MCLR) would kick in, which will prod banks to use their incremental cost of funds, rather than average cost of deposits to arrive at the lending rate. Since money market rates move faster than deposit rates and banks tap into these money markets, the incremental cost will add dynamism in lending rate calculations. And, 10-year bond yields have fallen 15-20 bps since the Budget. If this trend continues till March-end, banks would have to factor in this drop.
Finally, with RBI infusing longer-term liquidity in the system through secondary bond market purchases, banks should have less reason to complain that system liquidity tightness is not letting them pass on rate cuts. Under the new liquidity framework, RBI ensures call money rates are anchored at around the repo rate, no matter how much liquidity infusion is needed. However, bankers have complained that the liquidity infused is short-term, and more permanent liquidity needs to be infused through secondary market bond purchase. The central bank does so through its open market operations, or OMO. Including a scheduled Rs 15,000-crore OMO purchase on Thursday, RBI's liquidity infusion is close to Rs 50,000 crore in recent months.
The OMOs, and with government spending picking up, have ensured that from an acute shortage of Rs 1.6 lakh crore at the end of January, banking system liquidity has improved to less than Rs 1 lakh crore now.
But there would be stress on the liquidity front again, starting March 15, when advanced tax outflow starts, pointed out Gaurav Kapur, India economist at Royal Bank of Scotland.
The tight liquidity condition would be needed to be evened out first before banks can move with rate cuts and that would be by the next financial year, Kapur said.
However, whether the rate cut would be of any meaning to revive growth is a different question altogether, articulated IDFC Bank's Chief Economist Indranil Pan.
"With MCLR pricing the incremental cost, pass-through of the cumulative 125-basis point rate cut is expected to be at 25-30 bps. So, even after a transmission of 85-90 bps if credit growth doesn't take place, one needs to ask if the problem lies with the RBI rate cuts and transmission mechanism or the credit channel itself," Pan said.
