Effect of rising NPAs of banks on aam aadmi

The domino effect of rising NPAs of banks

With public sector banks having accumulated Rs 4.5 lakh-crore worth of nonperforming assets or loans in which repayments are not happening in time, there has been a lot of talk going around on the performance of the banks and how it reflects on the broader performance of the Indian economy.

With public sector banks having accumulated Rs 4.5 lakh-crore worth of nonperforming assets or loans in which repayments are not happening in time, there has been a lot of talk going around on the performance of the banks and how it reflects on the broader performance of the Indian economy.

While RBI has gone ahead with a 125 basis points rate cut, the 'aam aadmi' is yet to experience the full transmission. With banks further saddled with a huge NPA burden now, the customers are bound to feel the pinch

1. How do NPAs affect a bank's balance sheet?Accumulated bad loans severely dent a bank's interest income. As per regulatory norms, banks are expected to make provisions against bad loans. High provisioning figures further eat away from their profits. Banks such as Bank of Baroda, Bank of India and Punjab National Bank have all posted huge losses due to high provisioning this quarter.

2. Should investors be worried?With all public sector banks being listed entities, a bad quarterly result reflects strongly in the stock market. If a bank is suffering from mounting NPAs and does not give any positive forward looking statements then stock prices crash which in turn affects the bank's shareholders income. However, now with the RBI instructing banks to clean up their balance sheets over the last two quarters of FY16 it is left to be seen how the banks after recognising the bad accounts manage to recover them.

3. Does it impact your accounts with the bank?Yes. Banks already reeling under mounting losses will not offer any rate cut for the customers. Therefore, home loans and car loans will continue to pinch the pockets of the bank customers though the Reserve Bank of India has cut repo rates by 125 basis points.

4. What are the other constituents which are affected?The government which is the largest shareholder in public sector banks loses out on dividends from the banks. Moreover the government in its Economic Survey 2016 has mentioned that banks would require Rs 1.8 lakh crore which will be taxpayers' money at the end of the day. Another effect is that banks, being more worried about loan recovery fail to invest in latest technologies and digitization of banking. Thus, customer convenience is affected.

By Sun Capital

Publish list of loan defaulters, AIBEA asks Centre

Suncapital.co.in: All India Bank Employees Association today urged the government to publish a list of defaulters, who had failed to repay loans worth over Rs 100 crore.

Responding to a question on the expectations of bank employees from the general budget to be presented tomorrow, AIBEA General Secretary C H Venkatachalam told reporters here that the banking sector was awaiting implementation of reforms for the betterment of bank services.

The government should offer loans to farmers at lower interest rates, so that the sector could again contribute substantially to the GDP, he said.
The banks, which were lending money with small savings of Rs 90 lakh crore, should open five lakh branches in the rural areas, where there were no branches, Venkatachalam suggested.
As the government was attempting to waive NPAs, reportedly worth about Rs 2 lakh crore, it should come up with a defaulters' list who had failed to repay their loans and book a criminal case and initiate stringent action against them, he said while referring to the reports that business tycoon Vijay Mallya, who owed thousand of crores rupees to several banks, was allegedly planning to leave India.

By Suncapital.co.in

Budget 2016: Foreign investors can now establish ARCs in India

Sun Capital: Budget 2016: Foreign investors can now establish ARCs in India 

MUMBAI: The asset reconstruction companies got a huge leg up from the Union Budget
with relaxation in sponsor holding limit, 100 per cent foreign direct investment and a
complete passthrough of income tax. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley announced easing of
sponsor holding limit to 100 per cent from the current 49 per cent paving the way for foreign
investors to set up an ARC in India.

"I propose to make necessary amendments in the Sarfaesi Act to enable the Sponsorer of
an ARC to hold upto 100 per cent stake in an ARC and permit noninstitutional investors to invest in securitization receipts," Jaitley said.

Currently, no sponsor can hold more than 50 per cent of an ARC's shareholding either by
way of FDI or by routing it through foreign portfolio investor controlled by the single sponsor.

"It looks very clear now that a foreign entity can also come in and establish an ARC in
India," VP Shetty, Executive Chairman, JM Financial ARC told ET. "Easing of sponsor limit
would certainly help ARCs to strengthen their capital base."

"The easing of sponsor holding limit will resolve capital issue for the ARCs to a very large extent," Siby Antony, MD & CEO, Edelweiss ARC told ET. "It's a good thing that the budget has given a lot of importance to ARCs for NPA management."

The government also relaxed foreign direct investment rules for ARCs by permitting 100 per cent FDI through the automatic route. The investment basket of foreign portfolio investors will now be expanded to include securities issued by such special purpose vehicles.

"Earlier only QIBs defined by Sebi were allowed to subscribe now it has been expanded, though we need little more clarification on who all will be part of non institutional investors," Antony added.

The Finance Minister also announced a compete pass through of income tax for all securitization trusts. "I propose to provide a complete pass through of income tax to securitization trusts including trusts of ARCs," Jaitley added. "The income will be taxed at the hands of the investor instead of the trusts."

The measures announced by the FM is aimed at enabling banks to clean their balance sheet which is saddled with rising bad loans.

"We have been representing to the government and RBI to allow us to have more capital so that we can participate in the market more significantly," Shetty added. "All the ARCs together have Rs 4000 crore of capital invested, with this capital our capacity to invest in bank bids is limited."

Sun Capital Advisory Services

Budget 2016 gives massive push to affordable housing supply and construction activity, seeks to spur demand

Sun Capital: Budget 2016 gives massive push to affordable housing supply and construction activity, seeks to spur demand

NEW DELHI | BENGALURU: The budget announcement on allowing 100 per cent deduction for profits to housing projects building homes up to 30 sq metres in the four metro cities and 60 sq metres in other cities is likely to spur supply of affordable homes, demand for which makes for almost 90 per cent of the demand for homes in India.

(Representative image) Builders and real estate experts say the exemption for affordable housing projects would bring in a 15-20 per cent upside on profits after paying the MAT tax. 

"100 per cent deduction for profits to an undertaking in housing project for flats upto 30 sq. metres in four metro cities and 60 sq. metres in other cities, approved during June 2016 to March 2019 and completed in three years. MAT to apply," finance minister Arun Jaitley announced in the budget today. 

Builders and real estate experts say the exemption for affordable housing projects would bring in a 15-20 per cent upside on profits after paying the MAT tax for a real estate developer building such a project, making it easier for the developer to attract foreign and domestic investment for housing projects.

In the budget, the FM also said that construction of affordable houses up to 60 square metres under any scheme of the Central or State Government including PPP Schemes will be exempt from service tax. 

First time home buyers will get deduction for additional interest of Rs 50,000 per annum for loans up to Rs 35 lakh sanctioned in 2016-­17, where house cost does not exceed Rs 50 lakh. 

"This will push developers to redeploy money into building more affordable housing. The FM has tried to address supply side concerns on the housing front. This will bring in much greater supply, spur construction activity and employment connected to it. Anyway 90 per cent of demand for housing is in this segment," says Rajeev Talwar, chief executive officer of DLF. 

Getamber Anand, national president of industry body Confederation of Real Estate Developers' Associations of India (CREDAI) says the government has actually understood that ease of doing business has to become reality to spruce 0 Comments Ravi Teja Sharma , Sobia Khan Search for News, Stock Quotes & NAV's READ MORE : real estate | MAT | Budget 2016 | Arun Jaitley Comments Add Your Comments actually understood that ease of doing business has to become reality to spruce up the GDP. 

"There has been a lot of rationalization of taxes. Small pain points of the real estate industry like harassment by excise department on ready mix concrete being manufactured on site for self use have been addressed," he says. 

In his speech, Jaitley extended excise duty exemption, which is presently available to concrete mix manufactured at site for use in construction work to ready mix concrete as well. 

The big challenge before the industry, Anand says, is to now lobby with states to increase density norms to achieve 30 sq metres and 60 sq metres of housing. 

In Haryana, for examples, the density norms are so low that you cannot do 30 sq metres of housing at all. 

"Supply of these kinds of homes cannot increase unless density norms area changed and density is increased for housing projects," he explains. 

Ashish Puravankara, managing director of Puravankara Projects says there is a huge shortage of affordable homes across cities. 

"The enhanced home loan interest deduction will further encourage buyers to invest more in this segment. This will further encourage private participation in affordable housing," he says. 

Anand of CREDAI says the budget has put the onus on real estate developers to finish houses within three years of start if they are to avail the exemption for affordable homes. "This would also be a challenge for us in the absence of single window clearance for project affordable," he says. 

"The government's service tax exemption on houses less than 60 sq m, and the additional exemption of Rs 50,000 for housing loans up to Rs 35 lakhs for homes not above Rs 50 lakhs will both likely improve first-­time home buyers' sentiment," says Jason Kothari, CEO, Housing.com. 

Shishir Baijal, managing director of property consultancy Knight Frank India says the housing sector will get a push from both supply and demand side. 

Baijal pointed out that the government's focus on digitization of land records is in the right direction especially in the rural areas, which will render land records free from encumbrances. 

The budget has also increased the limit of deduction of rent paid under section 80GG from Rs 24,000 per annum to Rs 60,000, to provide relief to those who live in rented houses

Sun Capital Advisory Services

India Budget 2016: Winners and Losers

Sun capital: India Budget 2016: Winners and Losers

Arun Jaitley, India's finance minister, Jayant Sinha, State finance minister, second right, and other members of the finance ministry in New Delhi, India, on Feb. 29

India’s annual budget is one of the nation’s most closely watched events -- not just for the numbers, but for the political message during a speech that runs for about 90 minutes.

This year rural villagers came away as undisputed winners, with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley announcing plans to "transform India for the benefit of the farmers, the poor and the vulnerable." That was expected: Prime Minister Narendra Modi lost a key state election in November, and faces as many as nine more contests next year. Here are the winners and losers.

WINNERS:

• Farmers -- pledges to double income of farmers by 2020, allocates 360 billion ($5.3 billion) to agriculture and farmers’ welfare; steps to ensure a greater share of retail food prices reach producers; announces 200-billion-rupee irrigation fund and record 9 trillion in credit for farmers. Affected companies include Shakti Pumps India Ltd., Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd.
• Poor families -- 100 percent of households to have cooking gas within three years; 100 percent of villages to have electricity by May 1, 2018.
• State-run banks -- 250 billion rupees to recapitalize government-controlled banks. "If additional capital is required by these banks, we will find the resources for doing so," Jaitley said. “We stand solidly behind these banks." Shares of State Bank of India Ltd. and Bank of Baroda could be affected.
• India’s biggest commodities exchange -- MCX Ltd. headed for a three-week high on the budget’s proposal to expand foreign direct investment in the exchanges.
• Housing developers -- 100% deduction in profits for affordable housing projects approved by March 2019. Projects must be built within three years. Shares of DLF Ltd., Unitech Ltd. could benefit.
• Tax litigants -- one-time dispute resolution scheme for those involved in retrospective tax disputes to pay only arrears; interest, penalty to be waived. Vodafone Group Plc, Cairn India Ltd. could gain.
• Infrastructure projects -- allocates 2.21 trillion rupees in total outlay for roads, railways and ports. Larsen & Toubro Ltd., India’s biggest engineering company, could see a boost.
• Energy industry -- "calibrated" market-based pricing to incentivize deep sea hydrocarbon exploration; 30 billion rupees a year to boost nuclear power investment. Reliance Industries Ltd., Oil & Natural Gas Corp., Oil India Ltd. could benefit.
• Startup Investors -- Profits made after two years of holding exempt from capital gains tax, compared with three years earlier. Move to benefit angel investors, seed funds and other early backers of startups.

LOSERS:

• The High Rollers -- 1 percent cess on luxury cars valued at 1 million rupees or more; surcharge on income tax raised to 15 percent from 12 percent on those earning 10 million rupees or more a year; additional 10 percent tax on those earning 1 million rupees or more in dividend income.
• Coal producers -- tax on coal production to double to 400 rupees per ton. Companies affected include NTPC Ltd., Tata Power Co., Adani Power Ltd.
• Smokers -- taxes on cigarettes to be hiked as much as 15 percent. Affected stocks include ITC Ltd., India’s biggest cigarette maker, and Godfrey Phillips India Ltd.
• Carmakers -- an infrastructure cess ranging from 1 percent to 4 percent on vehicles to help combat pollution. Shares of Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. fell to a 16-month low.
• Jewelry makers -- Excise duty on jewelry and higher threshold for exempt purchases. Companies affected include Titan Co.

Sun Capital Advisory Services

Tax to GDP ratio, redux

Suncapital: In a recent column in this newspaper (“India is an outlier in its tax policy”, 23 February), my IDFC Institute colleague, Praveen Chakravarty, and I peered into the Pandora’s box of public finance in India, arguing that India’s tax to gross domestic product ratio (GDP) is low by any relevant empirical benchmark. That particular trunk was prised open by French economist Thomas Piketty on a recent whirlwind tour of India. Readers will recall that it is he who has argued both that taxes are too low as a share of GDP, and that this contributes to a worsening inequality problem in India.

Now, the Economic Survey 2015-16 has a chapter devoted largely to tax to GDP ratio—for the first time so far as I am aware. Arvind Subramanian, chief economic adviser and architect of the survey, deserves enormous credit for turning what to many might have been an arcane technical issue into a live public policy debate.

The headline finding in chapter 7 of the survey is that, when controlling for GDP per capita, India is not, in fact, a negative outlier, as Chakravarty and I had claimed. Who is right?

Start with a simple statistical argument: an outlier is always relative to a given data set. So while, as we ourselves documented, the data clearly show that India’s tax to GDP ratio is low compared not just to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development but also emerging economies—see table 1 in chapter 7—the report then goes on to argue that this vanishes when controlling for the level of per capita GDP, as presented in figure 2.

However, the report itself then establishes—see figure 3 and table 2—that when democracy is added as an additional control, India re-emerges as a negative outlier in total tax to GDP ratio, as also total government expenditure and especially health and education expenditure as shares of GDP.

Further, I would conjecture that, were an additional control added for resource-rich economies whose public finance is markedly different from other major economies, the survey’s finding would be enhanced further, and India would be even more of a negative outlier in its tax to GDP ratio. Preliminary results by Chakravarty reinforce this conjecture.

One other claim in the chapter needs to be probed further. In section 7.13, it is asserted: “India’s tax to GDP ratio has increased by about 10 percentage points over the past six decades from about 6% in 1950-51 to 16.6% in 2013-14.”

While this is true, it is incomplete and perhaps misleading. As Chakravarty and I documented, this increase occurred almost entirely in the first three decades, whereas the tax to GDP ratio has remained largely flat in the 16-17% range since 1991, the year that launched economic reforms. Further, our analysis demonstrated that there is, in statistical jargon, a structural break in 1991, as even eyeballing the data suggests.

This poses an enormous public policy puzzle, and indeed it contradicts the survey’s claim that tax to GDP ratio tends to rise with per capita income. For, in India’s case, tax to GDP ratio rose during a period when growth of GDP per capita was fitful and slow, whereas, when GDP per capita took off after 1991, tax to GDP ratio did not keep pace!

The bottom line of the empirical research is that, depending on how you slice and dice the data, you can find that India’s tax to GDP ratio is a negative outlier, as Chakravarty and I argue, or that it is not, as the Economic Survey argues. This invites the question, is there any theoretical basis to assert that tax to GDP ratio should rise with per capita income?

As it happens, the survey chapter does not provide a persuasive theoretical counterpart to its empirical findings. There is some suggestion that the state’s legitimacy and taxing capacity may rise with per capita GDP, thereby allowing tax to GDP ratio to increase. But this argument is not rigorously articulated. Nor does it allow for the possibility of reverse causation, such that a rising tax (and government spending) to GDP ratio allows GDP per capita to rise more rapidly, which could confound any causal claims based on the survey’s empirical results.

My own hunch is that, as a baseline, the tax to GDP ratio is likely to remain approximately constant as GDP per capita rises, at least for mature economies, however one defines these. (For the wonkish: this would follow if the income elasticity of government spending is approximately unity, and if government spending is financed, on average, only by current taxes, so that, on average, the government is running a balanced budget.) What this implies is that, once society has decided how much it wants to spend—which fixes the ratio of government spending to GDP—the tax to GDP ratio will be pinned down, and thereafter tax and government spending will rise roughly in proportion to GDP, so that the ratios will remain approximately constant.

In simpler language, in the long run, Indian governments will choose to tax more, if they wish to spend more. That appetite seems lacking at present. There’s the rub.

By Suncapital.co.in

DLF pushes ahead with REIT listing plans

Suncapital: Country’s largest real estate firm by market capitalisation is gearing up to launch REITs worth up Rs6,000 crore in two tranches over the next two years

DLF is currently putting together commercial office assets totalling around 25 million square feet of land into the REITs portfolio

Mumbai: Pushing a step closer to launching India’s first Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), real estate firm DLF Ltd expects to complete forming a special purpose vehicle (SPV) within the next six months, said a top company executive of the Delhi-based company.

“We would be ready with the SPV in the next six months. As we announced earlier, we have signed non-disclosure agreements with 25 global investors. We should be the first one to crack it (REITs),” Rajeev Talwar, chief executive officer (CEO), DLF Ltd, told Mint over the phone.

Country’s largest real estate firm by market capitalisation is gearing up to launch REITs worth up Rs.6,000 crore in two tranches over the next two years.

REITs are listed entities that primarily invest in leased office and retail assets, allowing developers to raise funds by selling completed buildings to investors and listing them on stock exchanges as trust. Investors earn return on investment either through value appreciation or rental income generated from commercial assets.

REITs will also give overseas investors a chance to invest in lease rental generating assets, an asset class otherwise prohibited for foreigners.

DLF is currently putting together commercial office assets totalling around 25 million square feet of land into the REITs portfolio. As part of the process, promoters of DLF have decided to sell around 40% of its stake in DLF Cyber City Developers Ltd (DCCDL), a rental arm of the company to institutional investors. DCCDL earns around Rs.2,200 crore a year from rentals.

“Basically what is going on right now is divestment (of commercial portfolios) and to get foreign investors into the REIT portfolio. They have to come in the fair market valuation. In the first two quarters of the year, we would have brought all the funds and complete with our first stage which is to form an SPV,” Talwar said.

The listing of REITs, which many believe would bring stability and attract funds to the sector, has not been able to take off mainly due to tax hurdles.

Finance minister Arun Jaitley in the Union budget on Monday proposed to exempt REITs from the purview of dividend distribution tax (DDT), removing a significant hurdle to floating it in India.

“Exemption of DDT on REIT along with the FDI (foreign direct investment) policy changes in December last year will help get huge inflows from foreign institutional investors. For foreign institutional investors, the taxation was making it a lower return product for them. Now this (exemption) increases return and thereby attract more inflow of funds,” he said.

Anuj Puri, chairman and country head of JLL India, said with the proposal to remove DDT, REITs would become a realty soon with few listings likely to happen this year either by financial institutions or developers.

“Currently, around 229 million sq. ft of office space can be seen as REIT-compliant. If we assume that even 50% of these get listed, we are looking at a total REITs listing worth $18.5 billion,” Puri said.

Sun Capital Advisory Services